Net migration remains around 50,000

Annual net migration was provisionally estimated at
50,900 (± 900) in the year ended January 2019 compared with
52,700 in the previous year, Stats NZ said today.

Despite
the fall in net migration, provisional estimates of migrant
arrivals increased in the year ended January 2019, up 4,000
to 144,200. The top source countries for arrivals
were:
• Australia (25,100 – 15,200 of which were NZ
citizens)
• China (14,700)
• India (12,600)

• United Kingdom (10,200).

Provisional estimates of
migrant departures were also up 5,800 to 93,300. The larger
increase for departures meant net migration for the year
ended January 2019 was down 1,800 when compared with the
year ended January 2018.

“Net migration continues to
remain at historically high levels,” population indicators
manager Tehseen Islam said.

“This has been the case
since 2014, with a peak in 2016.”

See graph, Migration estimates (000) by
direction, rolling annual, year ended December 2001 to June
2019.

Citizenship

In the year ended
January 2019 there were 109,800 migrant arrivals for non-New
Zealand citizens and 47,800 migrant departures for a net
gain of 62,000 non-New Zealand citizens.

The number of
non-New Zealand citizen departures was higher than that of
departures for New Zealand citizens (45,600), but New
Zealand citizens had much fewer arrivals (34,300) leading to
a net loss of 11,200 New Zealand citizens.

See diagram, Estimated migration (mean
estimate), year ended January 2019.

Why are we
talking about migration for January 2019?

Annual
arrival and departure data are subject to notably less
revision at 5–6 months after the reference period. By this
time there is more certainty about whether travellers are
short-term or long-term (migrants), according to the 12/16-month rule.

The first
provisional estimate of net migration for the January 2019
year (published in March 2019) was 58,400 (± 1,600). Over
the past 5 months, this figure has been revised down to
50,900 (± 1,300). The uncertainty bounds reflect the model
uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to the
estimates.

Year ended June 2019 – provisional
migration estimates

Some users of migration data
may still want to look at the most recent provisional
data.

Provisional estimates for the year ended June
2019:
• migrant arrivals – 145,300 (± 1,400)

• migrant departures – 95,900 (± 1,400)
• net
migration gain – 49,400 (± 1,700).

Migration estimates
for the year ended February 2018 have now been finalised
with a net migration of 51,500.

Final estimates of
subnational migration now available

This month,
we’ve resumed international migration statistics by New
Zealand place of residence. These statistics previously
relied on address information supplied on passenger cards,
but now use geographic information from the Integrated Data
Infrastructure (IDI). For the first time, statistics for
Auckland can now be disaggregated further to the 21 local
board areas. For information on the new method, see Subnational Migration –
DataInfo+.

Subnational estimates of final migrant
arrivals and departures, and net migration, are available
for years ended May 2015 to February 2018 and monthly back
to June 2014. The geographic breakdowns of migration are
available for New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas, 67
territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board
areas.

The graphs below show the difference in net
migration between the 12/16-month rule outcomes-based
measure and the old PLT (permanent and long term)
intentions-based measure.

Differences in net migration
between the two measures reflect several factors. The
outcomes measure is a more accurate measure of national
migration levels. It is also a better measure of where
migrant arrivals end up going, and where migrant departures
leave from, within New Zealand. This is because it is based
on actual outcomes, not stated intentions on passenger
cards. The new method for determining place of residence
also has higher response rates than was obtained from
passenger cards.

See diagram, Net migration by regional
council area by PLT migration measure and 12/16-month rule,
rolling year ended 2015-05 to 2018-02.

“Differences
in net migration between the two measures have been more
significant for Auckland where they appear to have been
overstated by the PLT measure,” Mr Islam said.

“This
was true for New Zealand overall, where the old measure
overstated net migration by about 34,000 between 2015 and
2017.”

Over the three-year period ended February 2018,
estimated net migration for Auckland based on the outcomes
measure was 85,600 (187,800 migrant arrivals and 102,200
migrant departures). In comparison, net migration based on
the intentions-based measure was 101,300 (168,200 PLT
arrivals and 66,900 PLT departures).

“Other regions like
Northland and Bay of Plenty, however, have been understated.
This reflects the difference in where people say they are
migrating to and where they actually end up
going.”

See graph, Migration to and from the
Auckland Region by PLT migration measure and 12/16-month
rule, rolling year ended 2015-05 to 2018-02.

We are
currently assessing the frequency that these subnational
statistics will be released and assessing a method for
producing subnational provisional migration
estimates.

Update on statistics and
methods

An extended migration series back to the
early 2000s will be available by October 2019, following
finalisation of longitudinal travel histories to enable the
outcomes-based measure to be derived. Revised national
population estimates back to the September 2013 quarter,
being published on 15 August 2019, are using interim
backcast net migration estimates. These population estimates
for the 2013–18 period will be revised again by March 2020
to incorporate 2018 Census and 2018 Post-enumeration Survey
results, and any updated final birth, death, and migration
estimates.

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